You don't get out of that shit unless you are making millions of dollars. Upper class whites in america are top top as I was saying. If it was told by no narrator then you would have just been told he didn't commit the murder of his wife. I am trying to find a way to reply to this but all I can say is that if you got the story from some other guy in the prison who sees the situation that Red and Andy go through they would still be seeing everything Red is subjected through by Andy therefore making it a non objective source. Then it would be a different story entirely. If he'd just transferred Tommy away (in the book), I could interpret that differently maybe. I see Tommy's death as pretty good proof the warden knew 100% for sure Andy was innocent. Still though, the number of upper class whites who fail to adequately defend themselves when charged with crimes they didn't commit is pretty teeny-tiny. To be more fair though, Andy's story is good evidence, but not rock-solid. My point here is only that many people view Elmo's story as the clincher of Andy's innocence. Honestly, I find it astounding that the movie was able to successfully sell this as believable to the audience (myself included). If it were just a million to one I'd agree (that's practically all stories), but trillion to one really doesn't happen much anywhere. It is possible that Red's memory of the situation is colored by all sorts of things, like how much he likes his friend. You can think up almost any ridiculous theory, since anything is as likely as Andy's story.Īny objective source, or it could have been told without the use of a narrator at all. For example, maybe he did the murder but blocked out the memory somehow. You can say speculate maybe her odds of murder were higher on that night than most women since domestic abuse may have been a pattern in her life, or any number of other mitigating factors, but it's hard to find any explanation to bring a number that astronomical even close to reality.Īlmost any other explanation would be more likely than Andy's. The odds of being targeted for murder TWICE in one night though, would be up close to 1 in 18 million squared. That's still fairly reasonable, since people really do get murdered all the time, so him telling a story with odds of 1 in 18 million is not a deal-breaker, it could be just bad luck. The odds of being murdered on a particular given night, therefore, would be one in (365 x 50,000) 18,250,000. Both explanations are pretty far fetched.ĭoing the math on Andy's story, first off we've got an annual murder rate of approximately 1 homicide per 50,000 population, per year. Still, in my mind we're balancing which explanation of the truth is easier to believe- that Elmo's admission to the murder was somehow incorrect (therefore Andy is guilty), or that Andy's story from his defense is true (therefore Andy is innocent). That is pretty specific, which means Tommy is pretty convincing. the warden doesn't kill Tommy), so it's possible the movie simply slanted things to appeal to the widest audience, making Andy a hero. The original novella leaves his innocence more ambiguous (e.g. That doesn't just happen easily, even in those days. It's certainly far more likely than Andy's ridiculous defense being true.Īndy was a rich man convicted by a jury as guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. The story Tommy tells about Elmo blatch admitting to killing in a similar manner to that which happened to Andy's wife really could be inaccurate or a coincidence, exactly as the warden said. As a spectacular, trillion-to-one coincidence, his wife was murdered by someone else that exact same night. His gun then vanished mysteriously, never to be found. The story is told from Red's perspective as narrator, meaning every ounce of it came from Andy and how he chose to portray himself to his cell mates.Īndy's story in court was that he went to confront his wife, armed, motivated, and drunk, he dropped bullets with his fingerprints everywhere, then he changed his mind and left. I only found one small old thread on reddit, with a couple poor arguments in it. I can't believe how little discussion I've seen on this, and that it never occurred to me before. Latest Discussions The Super Mario Bros Movie Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves John Wick: Chapter 4 Renfield Keanu Reeves Tobey Maguire The Big List of Movie-Related Subreddits.Our Full Rules and Wiki Filter Posts by Link FlairĬlick 'spoiler' after posting something to give it a spoiler tag! The post will then be hidden like this.įor leaked info about upcoming movies, twist endings, or anything else spoileresque, please use the following method:
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